{"definition_raw":"---\nid: btc-swing-trader-midday\ntitle: BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)\nschedule: \"0 14 * * *\"\ntimeout: 1800\nretry: false\nbackground: true # MC-4942 U8: backgrounded \u2014 long-running, was stalling the tick\nenabled: false\nnotify_on: failure\nnotify_to: crypto-trader\nruntime_profile: claude_anthropic\nrun_as: shell\ncommand: \"cd /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader && python3 scripts/analyze.py\"\ntags: [crypto, btc, trading, analysis]\n---\n\nMid-day BTC swing trade analysis. Runs same analysis as morning (06:00 UTC) but at 14:00 UTC to catch intraday regime shifts. Downloads 1D and 4h charts, runs analysis via Claude Code CLI, sends result to Telegram.\n","id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","last_run":{"duration_s":null,"log_path":null,"output":"Stale lock killed after 1920s","started_at":"2026-06-11 12:32:00","status":"timeout"},"next_run":"2026-06-13 14:00","next_run_iso":"2026-06-13T14:00:00+02:00","runs":[{"duration_s":null,"finished_at":"2026-06-11T14:32:00.528690+02:00","id":406873,"log_path":null,"output":"Stale lock killed after 1920s","started_at":"2026-06-11 12:32:00","status":"timeout","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":239.857663,"finished_at":"2026-06-11T14:04:00.458990+02:00","id":406760,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/406760.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 130 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 165 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 160 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $63,080 (+3.4%), MA50=$74,751, RSI=22.8, ATR=$2710.0, sup=$59,131 (\u00d71), res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=unanimous\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-11_120305-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: No Trade\n  **Direction**: Flat\n  **Entry Price**: \u2014\n  **Stop-loss**: \u2014\n  **Target 1**: \u2014\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: \u2014\n  **Conviction**: Low\n  **Rationale**: Split vote \u2014 Opus No Trade (R:R 1.55:1 fails 2:1 floor), Sonnet Buy (T1 R:R only 1.26:1 standalone, also fails floor). Both critics flagged fabricated intraday/volume data; conservative-merge entry $63,080 (1D) + tightest stop $58,500 (1D) + closer T1 $68,851 (1D) = 1.26:1 \u2014 fails hard gate.\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Sonnet entry/current price $63,080 missing timeframe tag; Opus entry $62,500 (1h) not anchored in supplied S/R block; both analyses cite unsupported intraday divergence and volume claims not in brief.\n  \n  Suggested next: park setup, re-evaluate on 4h higher-low confirmation above $59,131 (1D) with R:R clearing 2:1 to MA20 $68,851 (1D). Stand down? (yes/no)\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3809 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3965 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (2926 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-11-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=No Trade, dir=Flat)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-11-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-11T14:00:00.600494+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":228.253067,"finished_at":"2026-06-10T14:03:48.727908+02:00","id":402454,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/402454.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 132 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 166 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 158 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $61,006 (-2.7%), MA50=$75,043, RSI=15.0, ATR=$2670.0, sup=$59,131 (\u00d71), res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=unanimous\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-10_120250-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: Buy\n  **Direction**: Long\n  **Entry Price**: $59,500\n  **Entry Method**: Limit\n  **Stop-loss**: $57,800\n  **Target 1**: $69,449\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: 5.9:1 to T1\n  **Conviction**: Medium\n  **Rationale**: Both analysts agree counter-trend long limit near authoritative support $59,131 (1D) with RSI 15.0 extreme oversold; conservative merge uses Sonnet's tighter entry $59,500 + Opus's tighter stop $57,800, T1 to MA20 $69,449 (1D). Opus T1 $66,200 dropped \u2014 Codex + Gemini both flagged as ungrounded (not in authoritative S/R block).\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Opus invented 1h RSI divergence + volume tapering + $66,200 shelf not present in brief; Sonnet narrative claims (Jan $100k peak, waterfall) lack proper timeframe citations though levels are grounded.\n  \n  Suggested next: stage $59,500 (1D) limit order with $57,800 (1D) stop, alert on fill, abandon if $59,131 (1D) breaks decisively before fill. Wire it? (yes/no)\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3960 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3979 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (3076 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-10-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=Buy, dir=Long)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-10-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-10T14:00:00.367112+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":205.788325,"finished_at":"2026-06-09T14:03:26.516237+02:00","id":398159,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/398159.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 133 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 166 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 159 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $62,706 (-1.2%), MA50=$75,369, RSI=15.1, ATR=$2600.0, sup=$59,131 (\u00d71), res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=majority\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-09_120229-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: No Trade\n  **Direction**: Flat\n  **Entry Price**: \u2014\n  **Stop-loss**: \u2014\n  **Target 1**: \u2014\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: \u2014\n  **Conviction**: Low\n  **Rationale**: Analysts split on direction \u2014 Opus = No Setup, Sonnet = counter-trend Long; both critics (Codex partial, Gemini disagree) flagged Sonnet's long thesis as fabricated-evidence-based (invented BB $58,189, 1h stabilization, volume distribution) with stop $58,800 only $331 below sole confirmed support $59,131 (1D) versus ATR $2,600 (1D). Watch-list trigger: MA20 reclaim $70,329 (1D) \u2192 first valid resistance $78,204 (1D) = $7,875 reward; needs stop \u2265 $66,392 to hit 2:1 (deferred until reclaim prints).\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Sonnet entry $62,500 and current price $62,706 missing timeframe tags; Opus volume read invented (brief gives only 24h aggregate, no daily series).\n  \n  Suggested next: park alert at MA20 $70,329 (1D) reclaim for long re-evaluation. Set alert now? (yes/no)\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3611 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3639 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (2622 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-09-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=No Trade, dir=Flat)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-09-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-09T14:00:00.594835+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":213.861794,"finished_at":"2026-06-08T14:03:34.465210+02:00","id":394046,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/394046.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 132 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 166 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 157 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $63,440 (+1.3%), MA50=$75,639, RSI=15.0, ATR=$2670.0, sup=$59,131 (\u00d71), res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=majority\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-08_120253-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: No Trade\n  **Direction**: Flat\n  **Entry Price**: \u2014\n  **Entry Method**: \u2014\n  **Stop-loss**: \u2014\n  **Target 1**: \u2014\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: \u2014\n  **Conviction**: Low\n  **Rationale**: Split vote \u2014 Opus No Setup, Sonnet Buy. Sonnet's claimed 2.99:1 used T2; recomputed R:R to T1 $71,089 (1D) = ($71,089 \u2212 $63,440) / ($63,440 \u2212 $58,500) = $7,649 / $4,940 = 1.55:1, fails 2:1 floor. Both critics flagged Sonnet for fabricated lower-timeframe data; Opus also dinged for invented 1h divergence/volume detail.\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Sonnet missing timeframe citation on Current Price and Entry Price ($63,440); both analysts cited 1h/4h details not in authoritative brief.\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3998 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3877 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (1463 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-08-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=No Trade, dir=Flat)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-08-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-08T14:00:00.391147+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":178.292006,"finished_at":"2026-06-07T14:02:58.943263+02:00","id":389856,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/389856.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 130 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 165 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 157 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $62,616 (+2.9%), MA50=$75,832, RSI=12.5, ATR=$2550.0, sup=$59,131 (\u00d71), res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n  Polymarket: 19.5% (bearish_extreme)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=majority\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-07_120224-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: No Trade\n  **Direction**: Flat\n  **Entry Price**: \u2014\n  **Entry Method**: \u2014\n  **Stop-loss**: \u2014\n  **Target 1**: \u2014\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: \u2014\n  **Conviction**: Low\n  **Rationale**: Analysts split \u2014 Opus No Setup, Sonnet counter-trend Buy. Split rule forces No Trade. Both critics (Gemini, Codex) flagged Sonnet's setup as built on invented data (BB $59,954, Jan $105k high, 4h RSI curl, volume drying up \u2014 none in brief); Opus also cited invented volume narrative. Consensus only on bearish regime (stacked-bear MAs, RSI 12.5 oversold extreme) \u2014 no agreed entry.\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Sonnet cites $61,500 entry as 1h despite no 1h numeric data in brief; Current Price tagged \"Live Market Data\" not a timeframe. Opus cites \"$68k break\" with no timeframe and not in authoritative S/R block.\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3813 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3895 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (2659 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-07-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=No Trade, dir=Flat)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-07-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-07T14:00:00.637375+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"},{"duration_s":182.199167,"finished_at":"2026-06-06T14:03:02.911256+02:00","id":385179,"log_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/btc-swing-trader-midday/385179.log","output":"BTC Swing Trader - E2E Pipeline (Council Phase 2)\n==================================================\nConfig loaded. Timeframes: ['1D', '4h', '1h']\n\nFetching charts...\n  OK 1D chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1D.png\n  OK 4h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_4h.png\n  OK 1h chart -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/charts/btc_1h.png\n  btc_1D.png: 130 KB\n  btc_4h.png: 167 KB\n  btc_1h.png: 158 KB\n\nFetching live market data...\n  Market data: $60,870 (-1.7%), MA50=$76,093, RSI=5.6, ATR=$2490.0, sup=none nearby, res=$78,204 (\u00d73), $79,479 (\u00d72)\n  Polymarket: 3.6% (bearish_extreme)\n\nRunning trading council (Opus + Sonnet + Gemini + Codex)...\n  Council complete: 4 models, agreement=majority\n\nLogging council verdict...\n  Council verdict -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/council_verdicts/2026-06-06_120248-verdict.json\n\nSynthesising final trade plan...\n  \u2500\u2500\u2500 FINAL TRADE PLAN \u2500\u2500\u2500\n  ## FINAL TRADE PLAN\n  **Action**: No Trade\n  **Direction**: Flat\n  **Entry Price**: \u2014\n  **Stop-loss**: \u2014\n  **Target 1**: \u2014\n  **Target 2**: \u2014\n  **Risk-Reward**: \u2014\n  **Entry Method**: \u2014\n  **Conviction**: Low\n  **Rationale**: Both analysts unanimously No Setup \u2014 bearish LH/LL + stacked-bear MAs (price $60,870 < MA20 $72,441 < MA50 $76,093 < MA200 $78,652) but RSI 5.6 = late short, zero nearby support = unanchored long. Critics flag Opus invented 13.4K BTC volume + 1h-div claim; Gemini DISAGREE on Sonnet for fabricated $100K/$92K/$84K price history \u2014 but no-trade verdict still holds.\n  **Timeframe Check**: Issues: Sonnet missing timeframe citations on $60,870 and $59,131; Opus \"$82k area\" lacks timeframe; Sonnet cited MA20 $72,437 vs ground truth $72,441.\n  Chart sent: btc_1D.png\n  Chart sent: btc_4h.png\n  Chart sent: btc_1h.png\n\nSending Telegram...\n  Telegram part 1/3 sent (3992 chars)\n  Telegram part 2/3 sent (3813 chars)\n  Telegram part 3/3 sent (1256 chars)\n\nSaving analysis...\n  Saved -> /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-06-analysis.md\n  Swing state -> /home/lucienne/workspace/state/swing_verdict.json (action=No Trade, dir=Flat)\n\n==================================================\nPipeline complete. Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader/analysis/2026-06-06-analysis.md\n","started_at":"2026-06-06T14:00:00.580141+02:00","status":"completed","task_id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","task_name":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"}],"runs_limit":20,"schedule":"0 14 * * *","schedule_label":{"description":"Daily at 14:00","is_custom":false,"label":"Daily","sort":4,"sort_time":"14:00"},"stats":{"avg_duration":208.04200366666666,"completed":6,"failed":0,"timeout":1,"total":7},"task":{"_description":"Mid-day BTC swing trade analysis. Runs same analysis as morning (06:00 UTC) but at 14:00 UTC to catch intraday regime shifts. Downloads 1D and 4h charts, runs analysis via Claude Code CLI, sends result to Telegram.","_file":"btc-swing-trader-midday.md","_path":"/home/lucienne/workspace/tasks/btc-swing-trader-midday.md","background":true,"command":"cd /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/btc-swing-trader && python3 scripts/analyze.py","enabled":false,"id":"btc-swing-trader-midday","notify_on":"failure","notify_to":"crypto-trader","retry":false,"run_as":"shell","runtime_profile":"claude_anthropic","schedule":"0 14 * * *","tags":["crypto","btc","trading","analysis"],"timeout":1800,"title":"BTC Swing Trade Analysis (Mid-day)"}}