Slug: sa-mozambique-gas-2026-05
Lens: SA business / energy. Sasol gas cliff (2030), Mozambique LNG (Area 1, 4), pipeline & supply MoUs, gas-to-power IPPs, industrial users on the Reef.
Compiled: 2026-05-01
| Phase | Window | What flows |
|---|---|---|
| Today → Jun 2028 | Pande/Temane natural gas + PSA ramp | Full industrial supply, but tightening |
| Jul 2028 → Jun 2030 | Methane-Rich Gas (MRG) by-product from Secunda CTL | Bridge — IGUA-SA disputes adequacy |
| Jul 2030 → | LNG (Matola FSRU + Richards Bay) blended into ROMPCO + Lilly | If terminals exist, otherwise demand destruction |
CEO Simon Baloyi (Sasol AGM Nov 2025): "We shouldn't anticipate any gas shortage between now and 2030." LNG via Matola "blended with Mozambique gas to ensure consistent supply until the gas from Mozambique had been fully depleted." Estimated LNG cost: 3-5× current regulated price of $3-3.50/GJ → $10-17/GJ delivered.
| Party | Motivation |
|---|---|
| Sasol | Buy time. MRG bridge protects industrial customer base (sells to traders) while Secunda's own decarbonisation plan eats internal gas. Critical: Sasol cannot lose its Sasolburg/Secunda customer base or the entire Lilly + Sasol Gas grid loses anchor demand → infrastructure stranding. |
| SA government (DMRE / Mantashe + DEE / Ramokgopa) | Avoid 70-300k industrial-job loss event before 2029 election cycle. Anchor IRP 2025's gas-to-power line (16 GW by 2039). Maintain Mozambique relationship (key SADC bloc partner under Chapo). |
| Mozambique government (Chapo, post-Oct 2024 election) | Royalties + jobs from Total restart ($4bn local contracts). Coral Norte tax revenue ($23bn over life). FSRU at Matola gives Maputo region power + industrial growth. Political stability post-Mondlane protests. |
| TotalEnergies | Restart $20.5bn stranded asset; secure gas off-take into Asia/Europe. Matola FSRU is defensive — protects Total's Moz position by giving it a domestic outlet. |
| ENI | Coral Norte de-risks Area 4 commercialisation while Rovuma onshore lags. FLNG repeatable model. |
| ExxonMobil | Rovuma FID 2026 if security holds. Late mover but 18 mtpa scale. |
| IGUA-SA / industrial users | Need supply at viable price. Building GasCo (NPC aggregator) to consolidate demand → bankable Matola contract. R80bn cumulative investment ask. |
| Vopak / Transnet (ZET) | First-mover advantage on Richards Bay; Vopak global LNG terminal experience; Transnet Pipelines protects existing Lilly Pipeline asset. |
| Eskom | Fuel-switch Ankerlig/Gourikwa to gas to lower diesel cost (~R6-8/kWh) AND back up renewables. 3 GW Richards Bay gas-to-power = first major IRP gas asset. |
| NGOs | Block Richards Bay env auth; argue against gas lock-in; renewables alternative. |
| # | Scenario | Probability (subjective) | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bridge holds: Matola COD late 2027, Richards Bay COD 2029, MRG gets industry to mid-2030, demand destruction limited to ~10-15% of customer base | 35% | Industrial base survives; LNG price sets new floor; Sasol Gas evolves into LNG trader |
| 2 | Slow-motion cliff: Matola FID Q4 2026, COD 2028; Richards Bay COD 2029-30. Gap from mid-2028 → MRG saturates → 25-40% demand destruction by 2030 | 40% | Significant industrial closures (brick, glass, food on Reef); permanent capacity loss |
| 3 | Hard cliff: Matola never reaches FID (guarantee gap); Richards Bay slips post-2030; MRG insufficient → mid-2030 supply gap; >50% demand destruction | 20% | Industrial gas effectively ends in SA; ROMPCO mothballed; sub-economy collapse on Reef gas grid |
| 4 | Upside surprise: West Coast gas (Brulpadda → Mossgas reactivation, or Namibia Orange Basin Venus/Graff to Saldanha pipe) delivers piped gas Sasolburg by 2031-32 at $6-8/GJ | 5% | Long-run gas economy, but doesn't bridge 2028-30 gap |