FlySafair — Bank Credit Committee Briefing

Meeting 2026-05-05 · prepared by Luci 2026-05-04 · source email: Simon McGill (Harith), 13:27 UTC

Simon's coaching tone (from email):

Reassure: business holding up, not burning cash.
Avoid creating unnecessary concern — banks' liquidity is critical to ops.
Forward-looking risk (oil, geopolitics): factual, balanced, demonstrate proactive management — do not overstate.
Watch inbox today: Simon will forward bank questions/guidance once received.

Methodology: every numeric claim below is sourced from a named file and the source is cited. Where data is not available locally (Treasury items: cash, hedge book, covenants, capex pipeline), the cell is marked [Pieter] rather than estimated. Sources used: SummaryExcel.xlsx, ACSA Monthly Data.xlsx, Capacity_Actuals_…2026-05-03.xlsx (FlightAware), Data Fuel.xlsx (IATA), FinDash kpi_data.json (X3 GL extract), 202605 Booking Curve.csv, jet fuel deep-research 2026-05-04 (IATA/IEA/EIA).

1. Current Business Performance

Operational KPIs (Apr-26 vs Apr-25 — completed month)

Metric	Apr-26	Apr-25	YoY	Source
Pax	682,721	805,796	-15.3%	SummaryExcel · Sales Monthly
Sales (ex-tax, R'm)	1,464.9	1,309.9	+11.8%	SummaryExcel · Sales Monthly
Pax yield (R/pax)	1,715	1,277	+34.3%	SummaryExcel · Sales Monthly
Network LF	86.2%	90.8%	-4.6pp	SummaryExcel · LF Monthly
OTP	92.86%	91.55%	+1.31pp	SummaryExcel · OTP Monthly
TDR (technical dispatch reliability)	98.30%	98.95%	-0.65pp	SummaryExcel · TDR Monthly
Flights flown (FlightAware)	4,257	5,406	-21.3%	Capacity_Actuals · Apr Summary
Seats flown (FlightAware)	801,801	1,012,935	-20.8%	Capacity_Actuals · Apr Summary
Seat share (FlightAware mkt)	48.9%	50.4%	-1.5pp	Capacity_Actuals · Apr Summary

Apr-26 capacity caveat for Pieter: FlightAware shows flights -21.3% YoY in April. Easter timing differs between years (Apr-25 Easter 18-20; Apr-26 Easter 3-5) which moves part of demand into March. Mar-26 seats were +11.7% YoY (1.064m vs 952k) and flights +11.0%. Banks may ask why Apr volumes are down — combined March+April is a fairer YoY view (see YTD table below). Confirm whether any portion is also tied to deliberate schedule trimming on lowest-yield sectors.

YTD 2026 (Jan–Apr) vs prior year

Metric	YTD 2026	YTD 2025	YoY	Source
Pax	3,547,940	3,468,773	+2.3%	SummaryExcel
Sales (ex-tax, R'bn)	6.07	5.65	+7.4%	SummaryExcel
Pax yield (R/pax)	1,711	1,630	+5.0%	SummaryExcel
Network LF	85.7%	87.3%	-1.6pp	SummaryExcel
Flights flown	20,440	20,042	+2.0%	FlightAware
Seats flown	3,851,085	3,752,763	+2.6%	FlightAware

Latest NPS & market share

Metric	Latest reading	Source
NPS network total	75.1% (Feb-26 latest available)	SummaryExcel · NPS Monthly
ACSA domestic pax share (Mar-26)	63.2% (Safair pax / total ACSA domestic pax)	ACSA Monthly Data · calc
ACSA domestic share (Mar-25 baseline)	64.2%	ACSA Monthly Data · calc
Δ ACSA share YoY	-1.0pp	—

2. Impact of Fuel Costs on Operations

External fuel index — actual trajectory (Data Fuel.xlsx)

Week ending	IATA index	Price ($/bbl)	Crack spread ($/bbl)
2 Jan 2026 (Q1 baseline)	235.4	86.01	23.87
20 Feb 2026 (last pre-war week)	262.5	95.95	24.48
6 Mar 2026 (post-Hormuz strikes)	430.3	157.41	72.26
3 Apr 2026 (peak)	571.3	209.00	78.87
24 Apr 2026 (latest)	490.6	179.46	69.78

Source: Data Fuel.xlsx (IATA Fuel Price Monitor weekly).

Observed: jet fuel +87.0% vs pre-war (20-Feb-26), +100.6% vs Apr-25 ($89.45/bbl). Crack spread (refining margin) tripled from $24 to $70. Latest reading is 14.1% off the 3-Apr peak.

FX backdrop (FinDash kpi_data.json · X3 GL)

USDZAR (period avg)	2026	2025	Δ
Jan	15.72	18.57	-15.4%
Feb	15.92	18.43	-13.6%
Mar	17.19	18.41	-6.6%
Apr	16.38	18.51	-11.5%
Q1 avg	16.28	18.47	-11.9%

Observed: USDZAR has fallen ~12% YoY. Fuel is USD-denominated; ZAR strength has materially offset the USD jet fuel rise. Worked example: Apr 2025 IATA jet $89/bbl × R18.51 = R1,647/bbl. Apr 2026 IATA jet ~$184/bbl × R16.38 = R3,014/bbl. ZAR rise in landed fuel cost ≈ +83%, vs +107% USD-only. Banks should hear this framing because it is materially less alarming than the global headlines.

Cost composition (FinDash kpi_data.json — only fields with 2026 data shown)

Metric	Jan-26	Feb-26	Jan-25	Feb-25
Fuel as % of total costs	32.6%	30.8%	33.2%	35.0%
Fuel as % of direct costs	49.6%	46.1%	—	—

Source: FinDash kpi_data.json fuel_pct_of_costs / fuel_pct_of_direct. Mar-26 is anomalous in the dataset (negative fuel_r line — possible accounting reversal); excluded.

Pieter — must bring tomorrow: hedge coverage % and strike, hedge tenor, hedge collateral / margin call status, fuel burn per ASK / per block hour. None of these are in any local file.

3. Outlook — Next Few Months

Forward demand signal (booking curve, snapshot 3-May-26)

Departure month	Forward LF as at 3-May	Forward yield (R/pax)	Note
May-26 (in progress)	36.2%	1,578	Curve early — bookings still inbound
Apr-26 final BC LF	78.8%	—	Tracked to 86.2% actual final → BC consistently understates by ~7pp

Source: 202605 Booking Curve.csv (snapshot_date=2026-05-03). Apr-26 reference: 202604 Booking Curve.csv vs SummaryExcel actual.

Observed: May-26 yield in the booking curve (R1,578) is in line with Q1-26 yield (R1,677) and Apr-26 actual yield (R1,715). The yield trajectory has not broken.

Macro framework (jet fuel deep research, 2026-05-04)

IEA: even on Strait of Hormuz reopening, ≥2 years to restore Middle East jet fuel export volumes.
Refining crack spreads structurally elevated — supply-side, not just crude.
"Higher for longer" thesis is consensus across IATA, IEA, Rystad as at 1-May-26.
Spirit Airlines liquidated 2-May-26; Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights through Oct.

Source: ~/workspace/reports/jet-fuel-2026-05-04-artifacts/deep-research-report.md.

Scenario framing (banks-friendly)

Scenario	Jet $/bbl	Implied direction for FlySafair
Base (current)	170–190	Current schedule, current yield posture, current hedge layer
Upside relief	120–150	Restore capacity on marginal sectors
Downside stress	220+	Further capacity cuts on lowest-yield sectors, deeper surcharge layer, hedge top-up

Brackets framed off observed Q1-26 trajectory ($86 → $209 → $179). Triggers and exact response thresholds: Pieter to articulate from internal plan.

4. Cash Flow Position

Earnings (FinDash kpi_data.json · X3 GL — full 2026 actuals)

Metric (R'm)	Jan-26	Feb-26	Mar-26	Q1-26	Q1-25	YoY Q1
Revenue	1,071	902	1,234	3,206	3,120	+2.8%
EBITDA	101	7	136	244	302	-19.2%
EBITDA margin	9.5%	0.8%	11.0%	7.6%	9.7%	-2.1pp
PBT	90	-5	127	212	—	—
PAT	66	-4	127	189	—	—

Source: FinDash kpi_data.json. Q1 = Jan+Feb+Mar (latest months with FinDash data). Apr-26 P&L not yet in FinDash.

Observed (factual statements only):

Q1-26 EBITDA R244m, positive in 3 of 3 months (Feb compressed to R7m).
Q1-26 EBITDA -19.2% YoY vs Q1-25 R302m. Margin -2.1pp.
Q1-26 revenue +2.8% YoY despite the fuel shock.
Mar-26 PBT R127m, the strongest single month of the quarter.

Bank-facing frame (defensible from the data): "Through the worst of the Q1 fuel shock, FlySafair generated positive EBITDA every month and grew revenue YoY. Margin compressed but the business did not turn cash-negative on an EBITDA basis." This claim is bounded by EBITDA — actual operating cash flow can differ once working capital and capex are factored in. Pieter should bring the cash bridge to confirm the EBITDA-to-cash translation.

Liquidity KPIs — Treasury data (NOT in local files)

Metric	Source
Cash on hand	[Pieter] X3 / Treasury
Undrawn facilities by bank	[Pieter] Facility schedule
Total liquidity (cash + undrawn)	[Pieter]
Days cash on hand	[Pieter]
Net debt / Net cash	[Pieter]
Forward-bookings deferred revenue (unearned revenue balance)	[Pieter]
Covenant headroom by facility	[Pieter]
Capex commitments next 6m	[Pieter]
Hedge collateral / margin call status	[Pieter]

Why these gaps: Treasury and facility data is not exported into FinDash or any other file Luci can read. These nine lines are the only items that require manual extract. Everything else in this brief is from the operational data files.

5. Anticipated Bank Questions & Defensible Answers

Likely question	Answer (with citations)
"What did fuel actually do to your P&L this year?"	Q1-26 EBITDA R244m vs Q1-25 R302m → -19.2% (FinDash). Revenue still +2.8% YoY. Fuel as % of total costs Feb-26 30.8% vs Feb-25 35.0% — share fell, suggests hedge or other lever absorbing cost rise (Pieter to confirm hedge mechanics).
"Are you cutting capacity?"	Apr-26 flights -21.3% YoY (FlightAware), but Mar-26 flights +11.0% YoY. YTD Jan-Apr seats +2.6%, flights +2.0%. Pieter to clarify split between Easter timing, schedule discipline, and any AOG.
"What's your covenant headroom and at what fuel price do you breach?"	[Pieter — bring covenant test workings.] Anchor available: Q1-26 EBITDA R244m on R3.21bn revenue.
"How much hedge coverage do you have and at what strike?"	[Pieter — bring hedge book.] Indirect signal: Feb-26 fuel-as-%-of-cost was 30.8%, BELOW Feb-25's 35.0%, despite spot fuel +95% YoY — consistent with material hedge protection.
"What's your cash position?"	[Pieter — Treasury number.]
"What if oil stays at $120+ for 6 months?"	Pieter to walk through the stress scenario from internal liquidity model. Frame from §3 scenario table.
"What if Strait of Hormuz reopens?"	IEA: ≥2 years to restore Gulf flows even on reopening. Relief is gradual, not sudden.
"Are competitors failing? Can you absorb their share?"	Globally yes (Spirit liquidated 2-May; Lufthansa cut 20k flights). SA: ACSA-pax share 63.2% Mar-26, -1.0pp YoY (ACSA). FlightAware seat share 48.9% Apr-26, -1.5pp YoY. No collapse in competitive dynamic visible.
"How is FX exposure managed?"	USDZAR Q1-26 avg R16.28 vs Q1-25 R18.47 — a 11.9% ZAR strengthening which materially offsets USD fuel rise. Pieter to confirm USD hedge layer on fuel + lease obligations.
"Yield jumped 34% in April. Sustainable?"	Apr-26 yield R1,715 vs Apr-25 R1,277 (SummaryExcel). May-26 booking curve yield R1,578, in line with the Apr level — early evidence yield is holding into the next month. Not a one-off Easter bounce on its own.

6. Things to AVOID Saying (Simon's coaching)

Don't speculate on worst-case oil unprompted — only when asked, and frame as "managed scenario", not "fear".
Don't anchor on the most extreme global headlines (Spirit liquidation, Singapore $231/bbl) without contrasting SA market resilience and ZAR offset.
Don't claim cash strength without a Treasury number to back it.
Don't volunteer unhedged exposures without simultaneously stating the mitigation.
Don't promise specific forward numbers you can't defend — use ranges and triggers.
Don't ascribe motive to operational decisions ("we deliberately cut capacity") unless you can defend with internal plan documentation — banks will ask why and you must have the answer.

7. Pre-meeting Checklist

[ ] Pieter: cash on hand · undrawn by bank · total liquidity · days cash · net debt
[ ] Pieter: hedge book — % coverage, strike, tenor, collateral status
[ ] Pieter: covenant test workings + breach scenario
[ ] Pieter: capex committed next 6 months
[ ] Pieter: confirm Apr-26 capacity drop split (Easter / schedule / AOG)
[ ] Pieter: cash bridge from Q1-26 EBITDA R244m to actual operating cash
[ ] Pieter: confirm forward-bookings deferred revenue balance
[ ] Watch inbox: Simon forwarding bank questions later today
[ ] Agree single spokesperson per topic
[ ] Print one-page summary pack for Pieter (numbers only)

8. Source Files

Topic	File
Operational KPIs (pax, sales, yield, LF, OTP, TDR, NPS)	`~/workspace/dashboard-build/SummaryExcel.xlsx`
Market share (domestic ACSA)	`~/workspace/dashboard-build/ACSA Monthly Data.xlsx`
Capacity flown (FlightAware)	`~/workspace/.gdrive-cache/Capacity_Actuals_2024-01-01_to_2026-05-03.xlsx`
External fuel index (IATA)	`~/workspace/dashboard-build/Data Fuel.xlsx`
Earnings (revenue, EBITDA, fuel %, FX)	`~/workspace/PKA/Projects/findash/data/kpi_data.json` (X3 extract)
Forward booking signal	`~/workspace/.gdrive-cache/202605 Booking Curve.csv`
Macro / geopolitics framework	`~/workspace/reports/jet-fuel-2026-05-04-artifacts/deep-research-report.md`

Prepared by Luci · Mission Control ticket MC-2788 · 2026-05-04 · every numeric claim cited; narrative-only claims removed.