FlySafair — Fuel Impact April 2026 + May Projection

TL;DR KPIs Fuel Trend Mar vs Apr Recovery May Projection Caveats

TL;DR

March actuals: fuel R418M (R14.62/L delivered), PBT R127M. April actuals: fuel R707M (R26.52/L delivered), PBT R44M — full pass-through of the Iran-spike. All cost figures are findash IS actuals (MC-3517). FlySafair absorbed 79.2% of the R288M fuel shock: R194M absorbed by higher fares + R34M absorbed by fewer flights. Only R84M fell to PBT.

Material changes detected since 2026-05-07 baseline:

IATA jet fuel moved materially: latest $162.89/bbl vs baseline $181.0/bbl (down 10.0%). Scenario fuel R/L inputs may need updating.

Headline KPIs

Mar PBT

R127M

10.3% margin

Apr PBT

R44M

3.1% — fuel doubled

May Base PBT (MTD run-rate)

R-93M

-7.7% · LF 80.2% MTD

Fuel hike absorbed

R288M

Apr vs Mar additional fuel cost

Yield recovery

79%

on per-pax basis

Sensitivity upside

R2.5M

if LF matures +6.4pp to 86.6%

Fuel Price Trend (IATA Weekly, USD/bbl)

Chart shows IATA jet fuel index (USD/bbl). Massive spike began week of 6 March 2026, driven by Iran-related supply disruption. Crack spreads also surged. Data from Data Fuel.xlsx refreshed by iata-fuel-update task.

March vs April Detailed Comparison

Operating Metrics

Metric	Mar 2026	Apr 2026	Δ
Flights	5,640	5,307	-5.9%
Pax	952,408	864,907	-9.2%
Seats	1,062,072	999,135	-5.9%
Load Factor	89.7%	86.6%	-3.1pp
Yield (R/pax)	R1,329	R1,628	+22.5%
Revenue	R1,233.5M	R1,427.2M	+15.7%

Cost Build-up

Line	Mar	Apr	Δ
Fuel volume (L)	28.6M	26.6M	-6.9%
Fuel R/L delivered	R14.62	R26.52	+81%
Fuel cost	R418M	R707M	+R288M
Non-fuel cost	R718M	R684M	−R34M
Total cost	R1,136M	R1,390M	+R254M
PBT	R127M	R44M	R-84M

Cost Mix

	Fuel % of revenue	Fuel % of total costs
Mar	33.9%	36.8%
Apr	49.5%	50.8%
Pre-spike norm	~22%	~25%

Recovery Analysis

Per-pax basis (cleanest — strips volume effects)

	Mar	Apr	Δ
Yield (R/pax)	R1,329	R1,628	+R299
Fuel/pax	R439	R817	+R378

Yield recovery: R299 of R378 = 79%

Per-flight basis

	Mar	Apr	Δ
Revenue/flight	R219K	R269K	+R50K
Fuel/flight	R74K	R133K	+R59K

Recovery: R50K of R59K = 85%

Total network basis — full reconciliation

	Mar	Apr	Δ	Effect
Revenue	R1,234M	R1,427M	+R194M	Fares hiked → recovers fuel
Fuel cost	R418M	R707M	+R288M	The hit being absorbed
Non-fuel cost	R718M	R684M	−R34M	Fewer flights (5,640→5,307) saved costs
Other IS movement	R30M	R7M	−R24M	Finance costs / tax / non-op items (non-operating IS)
Net to PBT	R127M	R44M	−R84M	Waterfall: rev Δ − fuel hike + nonfuel saving + other IS = PBT Δ

How the R288M fuel hike was absorbed

194M fares

34M cost

84M PBT

R288M fuel increase absorbed via: R194M higher fares + R34M fewer-flight cost savings + R24M other IS items + R84M dropped to PBT.
Total absorption check: R288M ≈ R288M ✓ (revenue + nonfuel saving + other IS + PBT drop = fuel hike).
Operating recovery (revenue + cost savings): R228M of R288M = 79.2%.

Three views of "recovery"

Definition	Numerator	Denominator	%
Revenue ÷ fuel hike (gross)	+R194M revenue	R288M fuel hike	67.2%
Revenue ÷ net cost increase	+R194M revenue	R254M net (288−34)	76.3%
Total absorption (rev + cost cuts) ÷ fuel hike	+R228M (194+34)	R288M	79.2%

Reconciling the views. The revenue-only bar understates the real picture — it ignores the non-fuel cost saving from flying fewer flights.

Per-pax recovery is highest because it strips volume effects. Total absorption is the most complete view — it captures both fare recovery and cost reduction. The residual is what actually dropped to PBT.

May 2026 Projection — Updated MTD

Updated 2026-05-15 with MTD signals. Schedule: 5,640 March flights → 5,307 April → 5,031 May. Fuel tariffs easing per latest B4i.

May MTD signals

Metric	Value	Read
Schedule (full month)	5,031 flights · 950,475 seats	Slightly below April (5,307)
MTD period	May 2026 MTD (14 days, through 14 May)	Live from dashboard_data.json
MTD flights	2,222	Flown through period
MTD pax	336,517	Flown through period
MTD revenue	R531.8M	Flown revenue
MTD yield	R1,580	Easing vs Apr R1,628 as surcharges drop
MTD LF	80.2%	vs April 86.6%

May Inputs (revised)

Driver	Assumption	Source
IATA latest week	$162.89/bbl	Data Fuel.xlsx
FX	~16.80 (flat)	Apr trend
Fuel R/L base case	R25.72 (auto-derived from MTD)	B4i tariff easing + Radixx surcharges
Flights	5,031	May schedule (live)
Yield base	R1,580 (auto-derived from MTD)	MTD blend + recovery as surcharges normalise
LF base	80% (auto-derived from MTD)	Apr-style demand

Three Scenarios (revised)

Optimistic [live MTD]

Fuel R/L: R24.22
Yield: R1,628
LF: 82.2%
Flights: 5,031
Revenue: R1,272M
Fuel: R612M
Non-fuel: R648M

R12M

1.0% margin · contracts ease further, yields hold

Base — May MTD run-rate [live MTD] · headline Base

Fuel R/L: R25.72
Yield: R1,580
LF: 80.2%
Flights: 5,031
Revenue: R1,204M
Fuel: R649M
Non-fuel: R648M

−R93.1M

-7.7% margin · data-derived: yield/LF from May MTD; fuel from Apr actual × IATA ratio

Sensitivity: if May LF matures to April's 86.6% (requires +6.4pp vs MTD 80.2%) [full-month proj]

LF	86.6%	Revenue	R1,300M
PBT	R2.5M	Margin	0.2%

Sensitivity upside: bookings mature to April-like close. Not the reported Base.

Pessimistic [live MTD]

Fuel R/L: R27.72
Yield: R1,533
LF: 78.2%
Flights: 5,031
Revenue: R1,139M
Fuel: R700M
Non-fuel: R648M

−R209M

-18.3% margin · sustained pressure, demand soft

Headline Base [live MTD run-rate]: 5,031 flights × 5,019 L/flight (Apr actual uplift÷flights) = 25.25M L × R25.72 = R649.5M fuel. 950,475 seats × 80.2% LF × R1,580 yield = R1,204.4M revenue. Non-fuel = 5,031 × R128,797 (Apr actual) = R648.0M. PBT = R-93.1M.
Sensitivity [full-month proj]: Same fuel/flights/non-fuel; LF projected to 86.6% (Apr actual full-month close as maturity proxy, requires +6.4pp vs MTD). 950,475 seats × 86.6% × R1,580 = R1,300.0M revenue. Sensitivity PBT = R2.5M.

Caveats & Methodology Notes

March + April fuel costs are ACTUALS — pulled from kpi_data.json fuel_r / fuel_uplift / avg_fuel_per_liter_uplifted / total_costs / pbt_r. No estimates or back-solves used for these months.
Non-fuel/flight (R128,797) derived at runtime from April actuals: (total_costs − fuel_r) / flights. Used as the May cost base.
April delivered R/L (R26.52) is the fuel price anchor for May. May base is April actual × IATA easing ratio (latest weekly ÷ Apr 167.96 $/bbl). B4i May tariffs corroborate easing direction.
May L/flight (5,019) derived from April actual uplift ÷ flights. Stage-length mix shift could vary this ±2-3%.
Hedging not modelled — assumes spot pass-through.
May yield + LF anchored to live MTD data when available; static fallback otherwise.

Generated 2026-05-15 by build_report.py (fuel-impact-report skill, MC-3483) · IATA fuel data: Data Fuel.xlsx · Operational data: FinDash kpi_data.json · B4i: ~/PKA/SecondBrain/wiki/concepts/Fuel-Prices-B4i.md (last updated 2026-05-12) · Radixx surcharge: ~/PKA/SecondBrain/wiki/concepts/fuel-surcharge-data/surcharge_history.json (last updated 2026-05-09)

Route-Level Fuel Surcharge (Radixx)

Per-pax surcharge values loaded into Radixx booking system, ZAR incl VAT · Source: Pieter Richards weekly XLSX · auto-updated by flysafair-fuel-surcharge-update task

Peak week

2026-04-07

all routes highest

Cheapest route (peak)

R365

MQP-JNB

Most expensive (peak)

R1,448

JNB-MRU

Eased since peak

-9.3%

2026-04-07 → 2026-05-05

Top 6 routes — surcharge trajectory

Full route × week table

Route	03-17	03-24	03-31	04-07	04-14	05-05
BFN-JNB	R101	R145	R212	R397	R391	R360
CPT-BFN	R161	R232	R338	R635	R627	R576
CPT-DUR	R214	R307	R447	R841	R830	R762
CPT-ELS	R158	R227	R329	R619	R611	R561
CPT-GRJ	R97	R139	R202	R381	R376	R345
CPT-HDS	R254	R366	R532	R999	R987	R906
CPT-HLA	R209	R301	R439	R825	R814	R749
CPT-JNB	R212	R305	R444	R833	R822	R756
CPT-MQP	R254	R366	R532	R999	R987	R906
CPT-PLZ	R133	R191	R278	R523	R516	R475
CPT-WDH	R179	R257	R375	R704	R694	R638
DUR-ELS	R121	R174	R253	R476	R469	R431
ELS-HLA	R158	R227	R329	R619	R611	R561
ELS-JNB	R150	R215	R313	R587	R580	R532
GRJ-HLA	R201	R290	R422	R794	R783	R720
GRJ-JNB	R185	R267	R389	R730	R720	R662
HLA-DUR	R121	R174	R253	R476	R469	R431
JNB-DUR	R117	R168	R245	R460	R454	R417
JNB-HRE	R154	R222	R323	R607	R599	R551
JNB-MRU	R368	R530	R771	R1,448	R1,429	R1,314
JNB-VFA	R151	R217	R316	R593	R585	R538
JNB-ZNZ	R312	R449	R654	R1,228	R1,212	R1,114
MQP-JNB	R93	R133	R194	R365	R360	R331
PLZ-DUR	R137	R197	R288	R539	R532	R489
PLZ-HLA	R174	R250	R363	R682	R673	R619
PLZ-JNB	R161	R232	R338	R635	R627	R576

Reading: Surcharges tripled 17 Mar → 7 Apr peak. Easing since as B4i tariffs came down. Each weekly file flows: B4i tariffs → fuel R/L → litres burned per route × R/L = surcharge per flight ÷ pax = surcharge per pax.

Full structured data: ~/PKA/SecondBrain/wiki/concepts/fuel-surcharge-data/surcharge_history.json

Fuel Impact Analysis — April 2026 & May Projection