Task run 386166
Task: f1-prediction-saturday - F1 race prediction Saturday refresh
Status: completed
Started: 2026-06-06T19:00:06.083651+02:00
Finished: 2026-06-06T19:02:51.947924+02:00
Duration: 165.862269s
Log path: /home/lucienne/workspace/logs/task-runs/f1-prediction-saturday/386166.log

--- output ---
run_id=386166
task_id=f1-prediction-saturday
status=completed
logged_at=2026-06-06T19:02:51.947813+02:00
truncated=false

Race found: Monaco Grand Prix on 2026-06-07
Type: Standard weekend
Running pipeline for Monaco Grand Prix (monaco-2026)...

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F1 Predictor Pipeline
Race: Monaco Grand Prix
Circuit: monaco
Sprint: False
Date: 2026-06-07
Phase: predict
Output: /home/lucienne/workspace/projects/f1-predictor/data/predictions/monaco-2026
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[PIPELINE] Running 01_fastf1.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 01_fastf1.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 02_news.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 02_news.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 03_reddit.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 03_reddit.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 04_odds.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 04_odds.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 08_polymarket.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 08_polymarket.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 07_deep_research.py (timeout=600s)...
[SUCCESS] 07_deep_research.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 10_f1_editorial.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 10_f1_editorial.py completed

[PIPELINE] FP analysis: trying FastF1 first...

[PIPELINE] Running 09_fp_deep_analysis.py (timeout=600s)...
[SUCCESS] 09_fp_deep_analysis.py completed
[PIPELINE] Saved FP signals (FastF1) for 22 drivers
[PIPELINE] Saved aero/PU signals: 0 teams aero, 0 teams PU

[PIPELINE] Running 05_model.py (timeout=300s)...
[SUCCESS] 05_model.py completed

[PIPELINE] Running 06_opus_synthesizer.py (timeout=600s)...
[SUCCESS] 06_opus_synthesizer.py completed

============================================================
Pipeline Complete
Steps run: 10
Failed: 0
============================================================


*F1 Prediction: Monaco Grand Prix*

P1: Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
P2: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
P3: George Russell (Mercedes)
P4: Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
P5: Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
P6: Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
P7: Lando Norris (McLaren)
P8: Nico Hulkenberg (Audi)
P9: Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
P10: Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)

Pole: Kimi Antonelli
FL: Charles Leclerc
Qualifying: 2026-06-06 16:00 SAST

_4 AI override(s) applied_

Summary: Qualifying has run and the picture flipped: the model (95% confidence) and Polymarket (57.5%) both crown Antonelli, while the Ferraris' market collapse — Leclerc at 5% despite pole pace and the highest volume — signals grid penalties that bury their raw speed. At a 0%-rain Monaco where track position is everything, Antonelli wins from the front with Verstappen the clear second, Russell next, and the quick-but-penalised Ferraris recovering only to mid-points.

Risks:
- The Leclerc/Hamilton grid-penalty read is inferred from the Polymarket collapse, not explicit news — if no penalty exists, the pole-sitting Ferrari wins and this order is wrong at the top
- Polymarket is thin and can be single-actor distorted; Antonelli's 57.5% and Verstappen's 25.5% may overstate their true odds

Submit before qualifying!
[Superbru] Submission window closed (2026-06-06 16:00 SAST) — skipping auto-submit

Done: Monaco Grand Prix prediction generated and sent