Trading
Crypto bot & BTC swing trader2026-06-13 06:09:20 SAST
Crypto Bot
DRY-RUN
as of 2026-06-11 21:05
$500
Equity
flat 14d
$0
BTC price
$0
Daily P&L
0
Trades 7d
0 total
Live pipeline
Swing verdict:
No Trade
· Flat · conviction Low
40.1h ago
Split vote — Opus No Trade (R:R 1.55:1 fails 2:1 floor), Sonnet Buy (T1 R:R only 1.26:1 standalone, also fails floor). Both critics flagged fabricated intraday/volume data; conservative-merge entry $63,080 (1D) + tightest stop $58,500 (1D) + closer T1 $68,851 (1D) = 1.26:1 — fails hard gate.
Pending approvals
2 waiting
| ID | Pair | Dir | Trigger | Stop | TP1 | R:R | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260523-204501-XXBT | XXBTZUSD | SELL | $76,734 | $77,377 | $75,136 | 2.88 | 487.4h |
| 20260606-083001-XXBT | XXBTZUSD | SELL | $61,400 | $61,825 | $60,508 | 1.85 | 163.7h |
Approve via Telegram:
/crypto-approve <id> · Decline: /crypto-decline <id>
Active watches
0 monitoring
None — orchestrator has no signals queued for entry.
Pipeline funnel — 14 days (303 cycles)
Last cycle 2026-06-11 21:05:
0 → 0 → 0 → 0 → 0 → 0 → 0 → 0
· regime high_uncertainty
DEGRADED
Strategy fire counts — 14 days
| Strategy | BUY | SELL | HOLD | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vwap_mean_reversion | 0 | 52 | 1 | 53 |
| macd_momentum | 0 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| ma_crossover | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| bollinger_squeeze | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| qfl_base_crack | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Regime timeline — 14 days
bull
bear
ranging
uncertain
fallback
Composite score distribution — 14 days
Threshold = 6.0 (yellow line). Bars at 6+ should mostly be green.
Equity curve — 14 days
$500
$500
Holdings
| Asset | Qty | Price | USD value |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 500.0000 | $1.00 | $500.00 |
Paper portfolio — verdict-driven · since 2026-04-05
+3.52%
Paper return
$10,344
-5.08%
BTC hodl
benchmark
+8.6%
Alpha
vs BTC
-4.23%
Drawdown
from peak
2026-04-05
━ paper ━ BTC hodl
2026-06-11
Current: 0.016516 BTC + $9,297 cash
@ $63,410 · peak $10,802
Verdict-driven trades
| Date | Bias | Conv | Risk | Target | Action | Δ BTC | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | sell | -0.0087 | $10,330 |
| 2026-06-10 | short | 20% | defensive | 15% | buy | +0.0088 | $10,298 |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | hold | — | $10,333 |
| 2026-06-08 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | sell | -0.0002 | $10,323 |
| 2026-06-07 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | sell | -0.0003 | $10,308 |
| 2026-06-06 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | buy | +0.0007 | $10,290 |
| 2026-06-05 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | hold | — | $10,335 |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | sell | -0.0071 | $10,339 |
| 2026-06-03 | short | 20% | defensive | 15% | buy | +0.0085 | $10,415 |
| 2026-06-02 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | buy | +0.0005 | $10,469 |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | hold | — | $10,509 |
| 2026-05-31 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | hold | — | $10,521 |
| 2026-05-30 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | hold | — | $10,512 |
| 2026-05-29 | short | 30% | defensive | 10% | sell | -0.0073 | $10,512 |
| 2026-05-28 | short | 20% | defensive | 15% | buy | +0.0077 | $10,501 |
Allocation map: long+high_conv → up to 75% BTC · short → flat · defensive caps at 25% · aggressive adds 25%. Fees 0.26%/leg. No real money.
Verdict accuracy — 56 scored · 54.0% overall
| Bias | Hits | Misses | Hit % | Avg 24h move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | 12 | 15 | 44.0% | +0.04% |
| SHORT | 18 | 11 | 62.0% | -0.6% |
24h directional accuracy: did BTC move in the direction the verdict suggested?
One row per day (deduped). 50% = coin flip. Needs >55% to be meaningful.
Recent verdicts scored
| Date | Bias | Conv | BTC at call | 24h move | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | short | 20% | $61,550 | +1.4% | ✗ |
| 2026-06-09 | short | 30% | $62,875 | -2.11% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-08 | short | 30% | $63,130 | -0.4% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-07 | short | 30% | $61,701 | +2.32% | ✗ |
| 2026-06-06 | short | 30% | $60,687 | +1.67% | ✗ |
| 2026-06-05 | short | 30% | $62,730 | -3.26% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-04 | short | 30% | $64,363 | -2.54% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-03 | short | 20% | $65,850 | -2.26% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-02 | short | 30% | $70,954 | -7.19% | ✓ |
| 2026-06-01 | short | 30% | $73,769 | -3.82% | ✓ |
Opus verdicts — last 10 calls
2026-06-11 03:31 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 28 daily oversold, F&G 12 extreme fear contrarian, Funding neutral, no long crowd; Bear: Price below 50/200 SMA, both TFs down, 6-day ETF outflow streak, DXY strengthening, risk_off macro; Invalidation: Daily close above 50SMA with ETF inflows returning and DXY weakening.
2026-06-10 03:31 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
20%
Bull: RSI 23 daily deeply oversold, Fear&Greed 9 extreme contrarian setup, Holding above 30d low support; Bear: Below 50/200 SMA, D1/4H downtrend, DXY strengthening, risk-off macro, ETF flows mixed, 7d net negative; Invalidation: Reclaim 50SMA with DXY rolling over and ETF inflows turning positive f
2026-06-09 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 27 daily oversold extreme, Fear & Greed 10 contrarian extreme, Price at 30d low support; Bear: Below 50/200 SMA both timeframes, DXY strengthening risk_off macro, ETF 7d outflow -1.9B distribution; Invalidation: Daily close above 78.1k resistance with renewed ETF inflows and 50SMA reclaim
2026-06-08 03:31 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 25 daily oversold, Fear & Greed 8 contrarian extreme, MACD bearish momentum weakening; Bear: Daily + 4H both downtrend, Below 50 and 200 SMA, Weekly -12% sell-off; Invalidation: Daily close back above 50SMA with RSI >40 and 4H uptrend on rising volume; close below 59070 confirms downtrend.
2026-06-07 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 19 daily extreme oversold, Fear & Greed 12 extreme contrarian, Price near 30d low support 59070; Bear: Weekly -16.11% strong downtrend, Below 50 and 200 SMA, ETF flows negative 7d -2070M; Invalidation: Daily close above 50SMA with positive ETF inflows and funding flipping positive would fl
2026-06-06 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI extreme oversold bounce setup, Fear&Greed 12 contrarian extreme, Price at 30d low support 59070; Bear: Weekly -17.73% strong downtrend, Below 50/200 SMA bearish stack, ETF outflows -2070 7d distribution; Invalidation: Reclaim 50SMA with ETF inflows resuming and funding turning positive fli
2026-06-05 03:31 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 17 daily extreme oversold, Fear&Greed 12 contrarian extreme, MACD histogram negative but rising; Bear: Below 50/200 SMA, 4H+1D downtrend, 7-day ETF outflow streak (-$2.5B), Weekly -13.52%, extended_down vs ATR; Invalidation: Reclaim and hold above 50SMA/$65k with ETF inflows breaking outfl
2026-06-04 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 18 extreme oversold daily/4h, F&G 12 extreme fear contrarian setup, MACD negative but rising; Bear: Weekly -13.27% extended downtrend, 7-day ETF outflow streak -$2.8B, Below 50/200 SMA, daily+4h downtrend; Invalidation: Reclaim 50SMA with ETF inflows resuming and funding flip positive woul
2026-06-03 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
20%
Bull: RSI deeply oversold, Extreme fear is contrarian, MACD histogram improving; Bear: Daily and 4h downtrends, 7-day ETF outflow streak, Polymarket consensus 13.5%; Invalidation: Reclaim 50SMA with ETF inflows and rising spot volume
2026-06-02 03:30 · morning_baseline
regime: bear_trend ·
risk: defensive ·
short
30%
Bull: RSI 28 daily/23 4h deeply oversold, Price at 30d low 70k support, Volume 1.59x 20d avg = capitulation; Bear: Below 50/200 SMA, downtrend both TFs, 7-day ETF outflow streak -$2.1B, Weekly -7.04%, MACD negative; Invalidation: Reclaim of 50SMA with ETF flows returning positive and daily close abo
BTC Swing Trader
ANALYSIS-ONLY
2026-06-11
Performance — scored setups (71 resolved, 27W/44L · overall hit rate 38.0%)
| Model | W | L | Pending | Open | Hit % | Avg R | Total R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPUS | 11 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 42.0% | +0.24R | +6.26R |
| COUNCIL | 9 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 41.0% | +0.21R | +4.59R |
| SONNET | 7 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 33.0% | +0.05R | +1.11R |
| CODEX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.0R | -1.0R |
| GEMINI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | -1.0R | -1.0R |
1R = initial risk (entry → stop). Scored against BTCUSDT 1h candles. Stop hit = -1R. Conservative: if both stop and target hit same bar, assumes stop.
Last scored: 2026-06-11 03:15
Recent scored setups
| Date | Model | Dir | Entry | Result | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | council | long | $59,500 | pending | — |
| 2026-06-10 | opus | long | $60,200 | pending | — |
| 2026-06-10 | sonnet | long | $59,500 | pending | — |
| 2026-06-09 | sonnet | long | $62,500 | open | — |
| 2026-06-08 | sonnet | long | $63,440 | open | — |
| 2026-06-07 | sonnet | long | $61,500 | open | — |
| 2026-06-02 | sonnet | long | $69,430 | ✗ stop | -1.00R |
| 2026-06-01 | sonnet | long | $72,512 | ✗ stop | -1.00R |
| 2026-05-30 | sonnet | long | $73,611 | ✗ stop | -1.00R |
| 2026-05-28 | opus | short | $78,204 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-28 | sonnet | long | $73,310 | ✗ stop | -1.00R |
| 2026-05-27 | council | short | $78,266 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-27 | opus | short | $78,266 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-27 | sonnet | short | $78,266 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-26 | sonnet | short | $77,206 | ✓ T1 | +1.09R |
| 2026-05-24 | opus | long | $76,400 | ✗ stop | -1.00R |
| 2026-05-24 | sonnet | short | $78,266 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-23 | opus | short | $78,266 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-23 | sonnet | long | $73,724 | expired | — |
| 2026-05-22 | council | short | $79,400 | expired | — |
Council verdict
UNANIMOUS
· opus, sonnet, codex, gemini
Majority
Latest setups — 2026-06-11
OPUS
No Trade
Price$63,080 (1D)
SetupLong
Entry$62,500 (1h)
Stop$58,400 (1D)
T1$68,851 (1D)
T2$74,751 (1D)
ConvictionLow
SONNET
Buy
Price$63,080
SetupLong (counter-trend mean-reversion bounc
Entry$63,080
Stop$58,500 (1D) — below $59,131 (
T1$68,851 (1D) — MA20, first maj
T2$78,204 (1D) — fractal resista
ConvictionLow
Charts
1D · 2026-06-12 02:02
1H · 2026-06-12 02:02
4H · 2026-06-12 02:02
DAILY · 2026-03-21 08:05
Recent setups — last 10 days
| Date | Opus action | Sonnet action |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | No Trade | Buy |
| 2026-06-10 | Buy | Buy (limit order, not active u |
| 2026-06-09 | No Trade | Buy |
| 2026-06-08 | No Trade | Buy |
| 2026-06-07 | No Trade | Buy |
| 2026-06-06 | No Trade | No Trade |
| 2026-06-05 | No Trade | No Trade |
| 2026-06-03 | No Trade | No Trade |
| 2026-06-02 | No Trade | Buy |
| 2026-06-01 | No Trade | Buy (small size only — counter |